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How We Called Obama’s Victory Early Tuesday Morning No Other Media Saw Coming

On early Tuesday morning “The New Dispensation” published its editorial on the United States election few hours before the opening of polls calling the election in favor of President Barack Obama and concisely unveiled how he would had been elected which no media saw coming.

In our editorial captioned, “Why Will America Wake Up Wednesday Morning to the Re-election of President Barack Obama”, we laid down  a precise path to President Obama’s victory and painted a clear picture of how he would get there that no media, including the sea of polls and  even the genius Chief  pollster, Chuck Todd of MSNBC did not anticipate but instead all believe the election was unpredictable and a close call and either candidate could had won.

We had followed the election religiously including the tiring  and countless polls categorized confusingly as  daily tracking poll, “national poll,” “generic poll, and you name it. These polls and the analysis pundits gave  them were breathing taking and gut ranching to the average electorates.

What was missing from the prospective of this outlet and prompted our editorial, was the absence of the “human factor or element” in the polls and all the analysis presented by pundits. The polls’ methodologies though might had been well placed in the rules and tuition of the polling profession and more so because there might not yet be a model which takes into account these human factors and human elements  to have an accurate picturesque of the election rather than characterized it as a close election, leaving the impression that America and the world headed for a long night.

This perception is based on the surveys and polls conducted by the countless polling institutions out there that are using numbers to draw their conclusions and by extension replace humans with numbers that do not speak or rationalize before making decision. America too was  on the edge, bracing for a long night or a new Romney Presidency.

What the polls out there failed to capture was the typical voters complex intelligence that woven and prone to secrecy, pride, desire for privacy and the sophisticated complexities of the splintered and diverse electorates.

These complexities include silent but splintered diverse minority’s electorates who don’t show up in polls. They don’t follow politics religiously but are keen to what is happening politically and do not respond to a survey because of their strong cultural beliefs and practices. They will shy away if you approach them to give their view on the race or answer who they will vote for in the election.

These silent but strong splintered and diverse minority electorates are the silver bullets that will retire Governor Mitt Romney from politics. They are the undercurrent of a river that seems not moving and with no activities seems to be taking place on the surface but beneath it,  is a powerful current that can sweep away a five hundred pound gorilla.

For these electorates, one debate and mere campaign speeches won’t sway them from the perception they have built for a candidate, be it a good or bad perception.

The Republican candidate, Governor Mitt Romney is a good candidate for the Republican Party but the timing of his candidacy for the party is not right.

Republican Party stakeholders sat by and licensed the party to other stakeholders who took the party from developing into a bigger tent from the gains of former President George Bush which brought in others without history to the party, to shrink  the tent so narrowly they dis-invited even their new tentmates.

These people too are do not show up in the polls because they won’t respond to polls but have strong convictions  on political and social issues and won’t share or show their reaction to what they see or think. They discuss in private with their own in close doors, in the privacy of their homes among family members and friends, church and organizations members. For them, we said, one debate won’t sway them or campaign stump speeches won’t sway them either from the values they stand for when they access and make their decision on who to vote for.

We stressed that if  it was all  said and done, and all other electoral demographics buy into the perception what the polls have called the race to be, one silent but silver bullet demographic group that won’t consider what the media and the electoral euphoria was, was the splintered and diverse but silent minority bloc that finds comfort and feel at home with the Democratic Party and sees President Obama as a personification of themselves and the strength and inspiration for their children.

For them,  we maintained, no one debate performance and campaign speeches  worth the sacrifice to throw the one they called their own under the bus.

“This silent splintered but diverse  minority would carry President Obama over to the finished line if everything is held constant as the race is perceived and come Wednesday morning, “Americans will wake up to the re-election of President Barack Obama to a second them”.

We argued that ‘pundits have made and made their postulation and prognostications, portraying the American electorates as some sort of fixed material structure without the inherit capacity and intelligence to process complex issues and navigate situations to decipher all the intellectual, professional, political, and journalistic chaos  surrounding the election’. Pundits have put themselves in the place of soothsayers, they  have an entire  new horizon where they believe in  their professional expertise  while ignoring the complexities of the human person and their intelligence to decipher issues they faced, the basis upon which they were going to cast their ballots.
Less than twenty-four hours after editorial, indeed, President Barack Obama was elected to a second a term and on Wednesday morning as we predicted, America woke up to the re-election of President Barack Obama just as we predicted.
Yes, in a perfect square, President Obama was re-elected exactly based on the path we laid down and the picture we painted  how he would have gotten there, the silent splintered
and divers ed minority carried him over to the finished line.
Pundits and the media are all over themselves knocking their heads in stunt as  to how they got their model so wrong and are playing Wednesday morning quarterback and now capturing the phenomena of the silent splintered and diverse minority, they now refer to as “coalition of minorities”  that gave President Obama “Ovule  Office” that carried President Obama to the finished line .
The rest of the media are now playing catch-up and the Republican Party and the Romney Campaign are caught flat-footed and in post election depression, for them too they didn’t see this “silver bullet coming”, but rather believed the polls, especially the most notable but plainly distorted  Rasmussen Poll.
The pollsters, media, and pundits got the election so wrong all because they failed to modeled their polls and analysis with the “human factor or human element”. There were were too many human factors and human elements stark up against Governor Mitt Romney and the Republican Party… they were self-inflected and under those circumstances, there was no chance he could have won the election but the polls deceived him, the Republican Party and the American public.
Now with new reality unfolding in the American political sphere, polling institutions will have to go back to the drawing drawing board and come new models that will put human factor and human element at the core of their work going forward. The Republican Party and their future candidate have realized and live with the reality that America has changed and they must adapt to the changing America, or else they face being an irrelevant political party many years to come, or to use a local jargon from the West African nation of Liberia, “YOUR WILL STILL LONG INSIDE”.

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Categorised in: NEWS, SPORTS

6 Responses »

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  6. I’m glad you understood it and called it correctly the morning of Election Day, but Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com not only called it right, but did so weeks ago, including the popular vote percentages, and which candidate would win in 50 of 50 states.


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