On early Tuesday morning “The New Dispensation” published its editorial on the United States election few hours before the opening of polls calling the election in favor of President Barack Obama and concisely unveiled how he would had been elected which no media saw coming.
In our editorial captioned, “Why Will America Wake Up Wednesday Morning to the Re-election of President Barack Obama”, we laid down a precise path to President Obama’s victory and painted a clear picture of how he would get there that no media, including the sea of polls and even the genius Chief pollster, Chuck Todd of MSNBC did not anticipate but instead all believe the election was unpredictable and a close call and either candidate could had won.
We had followed the election religiously including the tiring and countless polls categorized confusingly as daily tracking poll, “national poll,” “generic poll, and you name it. These polls and the analysis pundits gave them were breathing taking and gut ranching to the average electorates.
What was missing from the prospective of this outlet and prompted our editorial, was the absence of the “human factor or element” in the polls and all the analysis presented by pundits. The polls’ methodologies though might had been well placed in the rules and tuition of the polling profession and more so because there might not yet be a model which takes into account these human factors and human elements to have an accurate picturesque of the election rather than characterized it as a close election, leaving the impression that America and the world headed for a long night.
This perception is based on the surveys and polls conducted by the countless polling institutions out there that are using numbers to draw their conclusions and by extension replace humans with numbers that do not speak or rationalize before making decision. America too was on the edge, bracing for a long night or a new Romney Presidency.
What the polls out there failed to capture was the typical voters complex intelligence that woven and prone to secrecy, pride, desire for privacy and the sophisticated complexities of the splintered and diverse electorates.
These complexities include silent but splintered diverse minority’s electorates who don’t show up in polls. They don’t follow politics religiously but are keen to what is happening politically and do not respond to a survey because of their strong cultural beliefs and practices. They will shy away if you approach them to give their view on the race or answer who they will vote for in the election.
These silent but strong splintered and diverse minority electorates are the silver bullets that will retire Governor Mitt Romney from politics. They are the undercurrent of a river that seems not moving and with no activities seems to be taking place on the surface but beneath it, is a powerful current that can sweep away a five hundred pound gorilla.
For these electorates, one debate and mere campaign speeches won’t sway them from the perception they have built for a candidate, be it a good or bad perception.
The Republican candidate, Governor Mitt Romney is a good candidate for the Republican Party but the timing of his candidacy for the party is not right.
Republican Party stakeholders sat by and licensed the party to other stakeholders who took the party from developing into a bigger tent from the gains of former President George Bush which brought in others without history to the party, to shrink the tent so narrowly they dis-invited even their new tentmates.
These people too are do not show up in the polls because they won’t respond to polls but have strong convictions on political and social issues and won’t share or show their reaction to what they see or think. They discuss in private with their own in close doors, in the privacy of their homes among family members and friends, church and organizations members. For them, we said, one debate won’t sway them or campaign stump speeches won’t sway them either from the values they stand for when they access and make their decision on who to vote for.
We stressed that if it was all said and done, and all other electoral demographics buy into the perception what the polls have called the race to be, one silent but silver bullet demographic group that won’t consider what the media and the electoral euphoria was, was the splintered and diverse but silent minority bloc that finds comfort and feel at home with the Democratic Party and sees President Obama as a personification of themselves and the strength and inspiration for their children.
For them, we maintained, no one debate performance and campaign speeches worth the sacrifice to throw the one they called their own under the bus.
“This silent splintered but diverse minority would carry President Obama over to the finished line if everything is held constant as the race is perceived and come Wednesday morning, “Americans will wake up to the re-election of President Barack Obama to a second them”.