By J K K Peah
The Research on Liberia 2017 election conducted in Liberia by Christian T L Peah, a distinguish Liberian researcher published recently, has released the electoral map of the research on the performance of political parties in the October 10th elections of Liberia show the projected performance of the two top political parties, the Congress for Democratic Change and ruling Unity Party.
Projection from the research electoral map indicates that the biggest opposition Party, Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) is likely not to win a single county in the country’s forthcoming October 10th elections.
The map shows the ruling party sweeping eleven counties which includes five counties in the western sphere of the country known as the Western Cluster which encompasses Lofa, Gbarpolu, Bomi, River Cess and Grand Cape Mount and five counties from the Southeast of the country known as the “Southeast Corridor” including Maryland, Sinoe, Grand Kru, River Gee and Grand Gedeh with Margibi County adding to the sweep.
The ruling Unity Party is also fiercely contending Montserrado County which has to largest registered voters of over 777,000 registered voters and Bong County, one of the largest vote rich counties which is leaning to the ruling party, a county they won in 2011 elections, the research electoral performance map reveals.
The research concludes that giving that the ruling Unity over performed in Montserrado County in the recent 2011 election by almost obliterating the opposition Congress for Democratic Change’s edge of 7% to 1% in 2011 election, accruing 6% gain.
The research projects that by the over performance of the Unity Party in Montserrado and the only party to perform nationwide in the elections, by an extreme projection of the ruling party’s performance in Montserrado county, the research map conclusion is the party will sustain its performance progression this election and the party adds 1% to it progression, it will ultimately defeat the opposition Congress for Democratic Change in Montserrado County.
The research map projects that consistent with the Unity Party’s likely chances of winning Montserrado and Bong County as well as compounding its trajectory of performance, the Unity Party can reach the finished line by accruing the 2% shortfall the party could not amass to sweep a first round victory in the 2011 election elections when it won 49% of the votes, winning 10 counties while the main rival the Congress for Democratic Change won just three counties out of the 15 counties in the country.
Grand Gedeh the County, once stronghold of the opposition Congress for Democratic Change, the research which they lost for selecting the wife of former President Charles Taylor, map is projecting has shifted to the ruling party and will make up the 2% shortfall the Unity Party needed for a first round sweep in the 2011 election and the country’s biggest opposition party unlikely to win a single county, the research map says.
As a consequence of the prevailing variables, the research map reveals, it is likely the ruling Unity Part will sweep the election on October 10th election and avoid a run-off, projecting the party to win 13 counties out of 15 counties in the country.
The electoral map also captures the projection of six political parties and candidates’s performances, leaving out other parties and candidates which the research insist could not make the ranking because are likely not to accrue 3% in the election and none of which poised competing in a meaningful way in any county.
The research is warning that unless all hands on deck approach is adopted by the ruling Unity Party and prematurely begin to celebrate and take a layback attitude, unforeseen circumstances could befall the party that could alter the result of the election it is poised to win in a landslide,
A notation from the research recognizes that despite its projection, it will not rule out unforeseen circumstances not know and capture in this report and map which could slightly or greatly impact its findings but remain resolute about the integrity of its work.
Electoral Map 2017: